In the Likely Event

From the instant New York Times bestselling author of Fourth Wing, Rebecca Yarros, comes a sweeping romance about the sustained power of chance encounters.

When Izzy Astor gets on a plane to go home, she isn’t expecting much. It’s the usual holiday travel experience: busy, crowded, stressful.

Then she spots her seatmate, who is anything but ordinary. Nate Phelan sports dark hair, blue eyes, and a deliciously rugged charm that Izzy can’t resist. Their connection is undeniable. Izzy never believed in destiny before, but she does now.

Just ninety seconds after takeoff, their plane goes down in the Missouri River.

Their lives change. They change. Nate goes on to a career in the military while Izzy finds her way into politics. Despite a few chance encounters over the years, the timing never feels right.

Then comes a high-stakes reunion in Afghanistan, where Nate is tasked with protecting Izzy’s life.

He’ll do anything to keep her safe. And everything to win her heart.

Rebecca is a #1 New York Times, USA Today, Sunday Times, and Wall Street Journal bestselling author of over fifteen novels, including FOURTH WING, and is always ready to bring on the emotions. She's also the recipient of the Colorado Romance Writer’s Award of Excellence in New Adult for Eyes Turned Skyward from her Flight and Glory series.

She loves military heroes and has been blissfully married to hers for twenty-one years. She’s the mother of six children and lives in Colorado with her family, their stubborn English bulldog, feisty chinchillas, and Maine Coon cat who rules them all. Having fostered then adopted their youngest daughter, Rebecca is passionate about helping children in the foster system through her nonprofit, One October.

Visit her website at www.RebeccaYarros.com for more!

“Yarros explores the horrors of war and the aftermath of traumatic experiences. Her authentic characters feel equally strong and vulnerable, and their will-they-won’t-they hits all the right notes…Readers are sure to be moved.” ―Publishers Weekly

“An undeniable connection between two people amidst chaos intertwines to pack a satisfying emotional punch.” ―Heidi McLaughlin, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and USA Today bestselling author

“In the Likely Event is propulsive. It grips you from the moment Izzy and Nate lay eyes on each other and never lets you go. I couldn't stop reading, swooning, or letting my jaw drop with every twist and turn the story took. But you're always safe in Rebecca Yarros's hands.” ―Ali Rosen, James Beard nominated host of Potluck with Ali

In the Likely Event by Rebecca Yarros is an emotional, second-chance romance woven through years of trauma, duty, and the struggle to believe you deserve happiness after surviving the worst. The story centers on Izzy, a woman whose life has been shaped by service, sacrifice, and a complicated family history, and Nate, a soldier whose loyalty and sense of honor are both his greatest strengths and his greatest burdens. The book opens with a dramatic, life-changing event: a plane crash that Izzy and Nate survive together. In that terrifying moment, strangers become bonded by shared fear and the instinct to protect one another. From that point on, their lives are linked by a mixture of fate and choice, even as circumstances pull them apart again and again.

Izzy comes from a military-connected world that has taught her to be strong and self-reliant, but also left her with emotional scars. She is deeply affected by loss and by the expectations placed on her—expectations that often prioritize duty over personal happiness. Nate, on the other hand, is a soldier who lives and breathes responsibility. He carries the weight of command, the memories of combat, and the unspoken belief that his needs come last. When they meet during the flight that goes so disastrously wrong, there’s an immediate spark between them, but it’s not the easy kind of attraction you might expect from a typical romance. Instead, their connection is forged in fear, honesty, and the awareness that life can end in an instant. During the crash and its aftermath, they make promises to themselves and to each other, about truth, about not wasting time, about really living. But once the emergency ends and the world returns to normal, reality—distance, careers, and obligations—begins to test those promises.

The book moves back and forth through time, showing how Izzy and Nate’s relationship evolves over several years. This structure highlights a key theme: love is not always about one dramatic moment but about the choices you make again and again, even when it’s hard. After the crash, they are drawn to each other, yet life keeps getting in the way. Nate is often deployed or tied to his responsibilities, and Izzy has her own path to follow, including career decisions and family needs that demand her attention. They begin as near-strangers thrown together in crisis, then become friends, then something more, and then people who hurt each other without meaning to, as timing and miscommunication interfere. Each stage of their relationship reveals new layers of who they are: their fears, their loyalties, and the wounds they still carry from their pasts.

A big part of the emotional weight of the story comes from the way Yarros portrays trauma and survival. The plane crash is not just a dramatic event used to start a romance—it leaves marks that linger. Izzy and Nate both struggle with the psychological aftereffects of nearly dying. They experience hyper-awareness, flashes of panic, and the urge to cling to control in a world that has proven it can break without warning. On top of that, Nate’s experiences as a soldier further complicate his emotional landscape. He’s haunted by the people he’s lost and the moments when he had to make impossible choices. Izzy also has losses tied to her family and the military world, including grief that doesn’t fit neatly into words. Their love story is set against this backdrop of pain, making every moment of hope and tenderness feel hard-won rather than simple.

Family plays a strong role in the book as well. Izzy’s relationships with her relatives—and with the broader military community—shape how she sees herself and what she thinks she deserves. There are expectations about how she should behave, about what loyalty means, and about how much of herself she should give up for others. Nate’s world is similarly bound by duty and brotherhood, where sacrifice is expected and vulnerability can feel dangerous. These influences sometimes pull them closer, because they understand each other’s language of service and honor, but they also push them apart. Both of them wrestle with the question: Is it selfish to choose personal happiness when the people around you are still hurting, still fighting, still depending on you? The book suggests there is no easy answer and lets both characters make mistakes as they try to figure it out.

As time passes and circumstances change, Izzy and Nate keep crossing paths. There are moments when it seems like they might finally have a clear chance to be together—when deployments end, when careers shift, when they happen to be in the same place at the same time. Yet every time, something complicates the picture: a promise Nate feels he can’t break, a fear Izzy can’t shake, a new loss that throws them back into old patterns. Their chemistry is undeniable, but so are the walls they’ve built. Yarros doesn’t treat their love as a simple cure-all. Instead, she shows how even two people who are clearly meant for each other can struggle to trust, to stay, and to believe that they won’t just hurt each other again.

One of the most striking aspects of “In the Likely Event” is how it handles the idea of fate versus choice. The plane crash feels like fate—an event that shoves Izzy and Nate into each other’s lives without their consent. The years afterward, however, are full of decisions. They choose to call or not call, to open up or stay silent, to keep fighting for each other or pull away. The title itself suggests that life is full of “likely events,” the things we expect to happen, but also full of abrupt shocks that change our path. Izzy and Nate learn that they can’t control every event, but they can control how they respond. Their journey is about moving from simply surviving whatever happens to actively choosing the kind of life and love they want, even when it means risking pain.

In the later parts of the book, both Izzy and Nate face turning points that force them to confront what they truly want. Nate must decide whether he will always put duty above everything, or whether there is room in his life for lasting love. Izzy must decide whether she will keep protecting herself by staying emotionally distant, or whether she is ready to believe she can build something solid with someone who has seen her at her most vulnerable. These decisions are shaped by everything they’ve experienced—the crash, the years of separation, the losses they’ve endured—and they are not made lightly. When they finally allow themselves to be fully honest, the result is not a perfect fairy tale but a deeply human, hopeful connection built on raw truth.

By the end of “In the Likely Event,” Izzy and Nate’s story feels like a tribute to survivors who carry invisible scars and still dare to love. It is about people who have lived through the worst and still get on the next plane, still show up for the next day, still let themselves reach for joy even when the worst-case scenarios are burned into their minds. Their love does not erase their trauma, but it gives them a place to set it down and share the weight. The book leaves you with the sense that in a life full of unpredictable events—some beautiful, some shattering—choosing connection, choosing honesty, and choosing to stay is one of the bravest things a person can do.